Abstract
Abstract Motivated by the need to understand the nature of the remote atmospheric climate signal associated with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the question is addressed of estimating the nonlinear atmospheric response to ENSO using state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs). A set of multidecadal integrations of the Hadley Centre GCM model, HadAM1, is considered and the focus is on the variability of the winter 500-mb heights over the North Pacific and North Atlantic basins. The method is based on optimally filtering the signal out given an estimate of the covariance matrices of the ensemble mean and the internal noise, respectively, and requires that the ensemble mean be split into clusters according to the phase of the Southern Oscillation and then the signal in each cluster found. Over the North Pacific, La Nina appears to trigger the negative Pacific–North American (PNA) oscillation while during El Nino the response is degenerate, that is, with more than one response pattern, where the ...
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