Toward a new instrument for identifying the Italian hotspots of biodiversity: A case study of the amphibians and reptiles of Sicily

Abstract

A rapid improvement of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and geostatistic procedures has occurred in recent decades. Such technology has become an essential instrument for conservation biology. Several methods have been developed for modelling the potential distribution of species by defining the species–environment interactions. This paper proposes a new approach for identifying biodiversity hotspots in Italy. Data (2894) relative to the distribution of 20 species in Sicily derived from the CKmap databank were used. The algorithm MAXENT was applied for predicting the potential distribution of these species within Sicily utilizing climate, land cover, and human impact variables as environmental predictors. The specific distributions were overlapped and spatially summed, through a GIS-assisted overlay technique, for predicting the number of herptiles species across the area of interest with a spatial resolution of 30” of geographic degree. The models produced obtained highly variable validation scores, from relatively low values (Podarcis sicula: AUC = 0.647) up to very good results (Zamenis situlus: AUC = 0.862) according to ecological requirements of the species and faunistic data availability. The northwestern and southeastern coastal and sub-coastal areas were identified as the most species-rich zones of Sicily, and their importance as the priority targets of conservation initiatives was discussed.