Abstract
Considering that the world transport sector is the second largest contributor of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to energy use and the least decarbonized sector, it is highly recommended that all countries implement ambitious public policies to decarbonize this sector. In Mexico the transport sector generates the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions, in 2014 it contributed with 31.3% of net emissions. Two original scenarios for the Mexican transport sector, a no-policy baseline scenario (BLS) and a low carbon scenario (LCS) were constructed. In the LCS were applied 21 GHG mitigation measures, which far exceeds the proposals for reducing transport sector GHG emissions that Mexico submitted in its National Determined Contributions (NDC). As a result, the proposed LCS describes a sector transformation path characterized by structural changes in freight and passenger mobility, new motor technologies for mobility, introduction of biofuels, price signals, transportation practices and regulations, as well as urban planning strategies, which altogether achieve an accumulated reduction of 3166 MtCO2e in a 25 year period, producing a global net benefit of 240,772 MUSD and a GHG emissions’ reduction of 56% in 2035 in relation to the BLS.
Highlights
On a global scale, the world transport sector generates the second largest share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.In 2014, this sector contributed 21% of global GHG emissions generated by energy use [1]
Our search process and criteria to define the selection of these countries were the following: first, they are among the eight top world transport sector GHG emitters; second, their road transport sector represented more than 60% of their transport sector GHG emissions according to data available for 2010, third they have prospective studies with great ambition to reduce GHG reductions above 40% in their transport sector by year 2035 in relation to a baseline scenario or a reference year and they present at least two future scenarios and five transport sector mitigation measures
From a study made for USA by EPRI [64], we found that this market share is near 50% by year 2030, assuming a 40% plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) share of new vehicle sales by year 2035 seems ambitious but appropriate for the case of Mexico
Summary
The world transport sector generates the second largest share of GHG emissions.In 2014, this sector contributed 21% of global GHG emissions generated by energy use [1]. If this trend continues, this sector will generate 10,317 million tons of CO2e (MtCO2e ) by the year 2040, which would represent a growth of 38% compared to transport GHG emissions in 2014 [3]. It is assumed that this measure applies only to 46% of the national bus fleet for urban use (HDV-P) and that the hybrid bus fleet increases from 41 vehicles in 2012 to 7694 in the year 2035, which implies an average annual growth rate of 25.6%. This measure implies an average differential cost of 282,491 USD for each hybrid bus relative to conventional buses.
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