Tourism in Sri Lanka and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Effects of Post-War Tourism Boom

Abstract

The main objective of this study is two-fold. First, it aims to undertake a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the performance of the Sri Lankan tourism sector using historical data and policy documents and to present a historical narrative on tourism. Second, it aims to analyse the effects of the post-war tourism boom on the Sri Lankan economy within an economy-wide framework by developing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, labelled as SLCGE-Tourism. In the process of achieving the above objectives the study addressed two knowledge gaps related to Sri Lankan tourism as identified in the literature. The first knowledge gap is that there is a lack of systematic historical analysis of Sri Lankan tourism both in terms of policy and data. This study contributes significantly in addressing this knowledge gap by undertaking a number of complementary analyses. Firstly, it undertakes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of post-independence tourism promotion strategies in the economic development process. It shows that Sri Lanka had many post-independence advantages, especially given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and on the major air and sea routes between Europe and the Far East. However, it missed opportunities due to inward-oriented development policies implemented by successive governments until 1977 and the three decade long civil war and other political violence ending in 2009.