Abstract
Butler (1980) has suggested that visits to particular tourist areas follow an asymptotic curve, marked by slow initial growth, then rapid growth, stability, and decline or rejuvenation. Lundberg (1980) has provided a similar model of tourism development which has six phases: rapid growth, short-run success, awareness of problems, tourism recession, serious difficulties, and reflection. This paper examines whether Butler's concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution and Lundberg's model of tourism development fit the pattern of international tourist arrivals for four case studies in the Caribbean region. It then explores the implications of this pattern for tourism in general and Caribbean tourism in particular.
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