Abstract
This study empirically tests the role of news discourse in forecasting tourist arrivals by examining Hong Kong. It employs structural topic modeling to identify key topics and their meanings related to tourism demand. The impact of the extracted news topics on tourist arrivals is then examined to forecast tourism demand using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with the selected news topic variables method. This study confirms that including news data significantly improves forecasting performance. Our forecasting model using news topics also outperformed the others when the destination was experiencing social unrest at the local level. These findings contribute to tourism demand forecasting research by incorporating discourse analysis and can help tourism destinations address various externalities related to news media.
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