Tourism, crime and risk perception: An examination of broadcast media's framing of negative Aruban sentiment in the Natalee Holloway case and its impact on tourism demand

Abstract

The results of a mixed method study conducted on media coverage in the aftermath of the 2005 disappearance of Natalee Holloway in Aruba confirmed the hypothesis that prolonged negative media coverage was responsible, at least in part, for the decline in U.S. tourist arrivals to Aruba, which began in 2006. Prior to 2006, Americans accounted for approximately 73% of tourism demand in Aruba and current statistics indicate the percentage has dropped to 58%. Protracted media storms, which often follow a crime or murder, can be devastating to countries that rely on tourism as the largest economic driver. Americans were heavily exposed to the Natalee Holloway case by far reaching cable and network news channels which, combined, covered the story more than 950 times during the first six months of coverage. The content analysis revealed the framing of negative Aruban sentiment by the media. The often contentious relationship between the media and foreign justice systems spurred by allegations of police misconduct and the shrouding of Aruban culture in mystery characterized much of the news content. A least squares regression revealed that prolonged negative media coverage impacted the decline in U.S. tourist arrivals to Aruba. Previous studies have noted that risk perception and fear of crime plays a role in the tourist travel decision. This study proposes an additional factor; the American public's outrage at Aruba's inability and perceived unwillingness to bring the prime suspect to justice. Implications of the study are that in the aftermath of a serious crime against a tourist recovery is possible; however destinations should have a plan in place for dealing with the home country's media and make regular attempts to communicate openly to avoid negative coverage.