Abstract
The contemporary crisis is giving evidence of failing macroeconomic theories and policies, after decades of focusing on the aggregate domestic demand and the role of the public expenditure. The contemporary crisis has shown the weakness of fiscal policy. With very low interest rates, the monetary policy does not seem to provide an alternative exit strategy out of the crisis, too. In this paper we discuss the hypothesis that GDP can still be a reliable estimate of growth. Nevertheless, at crisis times, only if the focus is on the foreign demand like International Tourism Receipts and Exports, and Exports can be an exit strategy. One component of Exports and International Tourism Receipts are worthy of attention. Thanks to a cluster analysis of per year variations of International Tourism Receipts (ITRs), GDP and Exports (World Bank Database) from 2007 to 2011, average positive variations of GDPs are matching with positive ITRs and Exports for “clusters” of countries. Performances of Europe and USA are worse than China, Brazil, India and South Africa and these continents and countries are separated in two different clusters. This result can be related to an increase of trade in emerging economies more than in mature ones, whose exit out of the crisis is much more demanding. The research confirms that Tourism and Exports are having an impact on the growth at different intensities (Europe and America vs. Asia) at crisis times.
Highlights
What’s in the DebateThe latest financial and real crisis has given evidence that macroeconomics and macroeconomic policies are not always able to predict, estimate and solve cycles of contemporary economies
The complexity of the phenomenon is such that, in the strict sense, it does not appear yet possible to reach an actual and definitive measurement. Despite this brief description on the new approaches can measure growth, in this paper we use a more traditional approach: with the aim to investigate the relationship between tourism and growth we use a cluster analysis of gross domestic product (GDP), International Tourism Receipts and Exports, in order to give evidence that GDPs can be positively impacted by the foreign demand when the domestic one is failing
During the crisis when macroeconomic policies are not able to cause a shock of the domestic expense or demand, when the public expenditure is to be drastically limited after decades of increasing debts, when domestic consumption and investments are depressed by the fiscal burden and when quantitative-easing is not able to solve the credit crunch, international tourism and exports can provide a positive impact
Summary
The latest financial and real crisis has given evidence that macroeconomics and macroeconomic policies are not always able to predict, estimate and solve cycles of contemporary economies. The complexity of the phenomenon is such that, in the strict sense, it does not appear yet possible to reach an actual and definitive measurement Despite this brief description on the new approaches can measure growth, in this paper we use a more traditional approach: with the aim to investigate the relationship between tourism and growth we use a cluster analysis of GDPs, International Tourism Receipts and Exports, in order to give evidence that GDPs can be positively impacted by the foreign demand when the domestic one is failing. During the crisis when macroeconomic policies are not able to cause a shock of the domestic expense or demand, when the public expenditure is to be drastically limited after decades of increasing debts, when domestic consumption and investments are depressed by the fiscal burden and when quantitative-easing is not able to solve the credit crunch, international tourism and exports can provide a positive impact.
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