Abstract
This research aimed to analyze both development level and pattern in tourism area around Lake Toba basing on its life cycle (Butler, 1980). Samples were tourism spots in 7 regencies in the area of Lake Toba; respondents included 195 householders and 198 tourists. Combined approach (qualitative and quantitative) in this research resulted in the differentiation within each spot in the area whose developments do not fully follow the linear line as it is assumed by Butler (1980) i.e. emphasizing the factor of tourist number as a main indicator in a development. Empirically, all of these tourism spots, as illustrated in previous studies, experienced a “jump” of development especially on their tourist numbers. Beside the determination of quantitative indicator of tourist number, this also happened due to direct correlation with the factor of product as well as tourism attraction including demographic and economic characteristic of the market of tourists and also the factor of superstructure esp. tourism institutions and policies.
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