Tourism and marine crises: The impact of Sargassum invasion on Caribbean small island developing sates

Abstract

Since 2011 the Caribbean has been experiencing large amounts of Sargassum on its beaches causing disruptions to tourism. There are nonetheless no large-scale empirical studies across the regizon on the impact of Sargassum on tourism and local economies. In addressing this knowledge gap this study investigates the impact of Sargassum on sandy beaches on tourism and sandy beach economic activity across 30 Caribbean Small Island Developing States. Spectral reflectance data from the MODIS satellite mission and a Floating Algae Index were used to detect the presence of Sargassum on sandy beaches. Tourism activity was measured using monthly tourist arrivals data from the Caribbean Tourism Organization and near sandy beaches nightlights data from the United States Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System. A Fixed effects panel regression model which controls for island specific time invariant effects, monthly and yearly time effects, and island specific time trends and allow for cross-sectional dependence and serial correlation was adopted. The results demonstrate that the average incidence of Sargassum reduces tourist arrivals growth by 1.1 percentage points up to 8 months after an outbreak with the highest incidence event having a 9 percentage points reduction. The results from nightlight intensity show a fall in sandy beach economic activity up to 6 months after an outbreak. An average Sargassum event of 0.25 and 0.15 constitute a reduction in sandy beach nightlight intensity of about 1.6 and 0.9 percent respectively.