Abstract
The general behavior of the tourism sector in Puerto Rico, with its marked seasonality, hints at a close relationship between tourism activities and climate conditions. Even if weather condition is only one of many variables considered by travelling tourists, climate conditions weigh heavily in the majority of the decisions. The effect of climate variability on the environment could be manifested in warmer temperature, heat waves, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events, such as severe storms and hurricanes, floods, and sea level rise. These conditions affect different sectors of society, among them public health and the economy. Therefore, our research has two main objectives: to establish a tourism climate index (TCI) for Puerto Rico and to analyze if occupancy rates in hotels correspond to local weather conditions. Even though there are many other variables that could have positive or negative effects on tourism activities, results showed a significant association between occupancy rate in Puerto Rico and climate indexes. According to both TCI and the mean historical climate for tourism indexes, the most favorable months for tourism in Puerto Rico were February and March (winter), whereas the worst season was the end of August and the beginning of September (summer-fall). Although winter represents dry conditions and lower temperatures in San Juan, it also represents the highest occupancy rate during the years examined. In summer and fall, data showed high occupancy rates, yet climate conditions were not suitable; these months also correspond to the hurricane season. During this season, high relative occupancy rates responded to internal and local tourism patterns. It can therefore be assumed that until the climate-tourism relationship is well characterized, there is little hope of fully understanding the potential economic effects, detrimental or beneficial, of global climate change, not only on tourism in Puerto Rico, but on other economic sectors as well.
Highlights
Even though tourism activity in Puerto Rico is only about 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP), tourism is still a key piece of the islands’ economic development strategy (Terrasa-Soler 2012)
Our research has two main objectives: to establish a tourism climate index (TCI) for Puerto Rico and to analyze if occupancy rates in hotels correspond to local weather conditions
We looked at average hotel occupancy rates (OCC) and several measures of climate to explore the relationship between climate and tourism in Puerto Rico
Summary
Even though tourism activity in Puerto Rico is only about 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP), tourism is still a key piece of the islands’ economic development strategy (Terrasa-Soler 2012). What Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands sell to tourists from temperate zones is a pleasant climate in the midst of winter; the opportunity to travel to a close, beautiful location and get relief from the winter climate The reality of this dynamic is reflected in the fact that the high season for tourism in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean corresponds to the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. This dynamic is important to Puerto Rico because approximately 90% of its tourists come from the United States, with most coming during the winter and from the northeastern corridor of the United States (Terrasa-Soler 2012)
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