Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23

Abstract

During solar cycle 23, which is now close to its end, variations of the total solar irradiance were measured by six different instruments, providing four independent time series of the irradiance variation over the complete solar cycle. A new composite time series constructed using five of these six instruments provides unprecedented instrument stability for the study of the open question of solar irradiance variations between minima. An independent analysis of the different composite time series is performed through an empirical proxy model fit. The new composite is fitted with 0.96 correlation (R2=93%) and RMS error of 0.15 W m−2, thus reaching the limit of the individual instrument stabilities. Both the measurements and the model indicate that for the current cycle the minimum irradiance level has not yet been reached. Therefore we use the model to extrapolate measurements up to 2008 when the minimum irradiance level is expected. If we assume that there will be no changes in the solar irradiance from 2006 to 2008 that are not captured by the regression model, it can be predicted that there will be no variation of the solar minimum irradiance level during cycle 23 with an uncertainty of ±0.14 W m−2.