Total Risk Points Predict Short- and Long-term Outcomes Following Colorectal Cancer Resection in Older Patients.

Abstract

Estimation of physiological ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) is reported to be useful as a predictor of postoperative complications and poor long-term survival after colorectal cancer. The total risk points (TRP) system is a simplified scoring system of E-PASS, and this study evaluated the utility of TRP in colorectal cancer resection in older patients. The clinicopathological data of 237 patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal cancer from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. The data were compared between a high TRP group (≥1,000, n=38) and a low TRP group (<1,000, n=199). We also conducted an analysis to determine risk factors of postoperative complications and poor long-term survival. TRP showed statistically significant correlations with the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of E-PASS (R=0.999, p<0.001). The high TRP group experienced postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥2) more frequently (42.1% vs. 11.1%, p<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that high TRP [odds ratio (OR)=5.214; 95% confidence interval (95%CI)=2.338-11.629; p<0.001] and age ≥80 (OR=2.760; 95%CI=1.308-5.826; p=0.008) were independent predictors of postoperative complications. Overall survival (OS) was poor in the high TRP group (5-year OS, 61.2% vs. 82.6%, p<0.001) compared with the low TRP group, and in the low prognostic nutritional index (<45) group (5-year OS, 70.9% vs. 86.3%, p=0.013) compared with the high prognostic nutritional index (≥45) group. Multivariate analysis showed that high TRP [hazard ratio (HR)=3.202; 95%CI=1.324-7,745; p=0.010] was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS. Patients aged ≥80 years should be closely monitored regarding postoperative complications. Reducing TRP to less than 1,000 is important to reduce postoperative complications and improve OS.