Total risk and seismic hazard analysis of large embankment dams: case study of Northwest Anatolia, Turkey

Abstract

Resistance and resilience of dams should be controlled through a set of appropriate design metrics to prevent a catastrophic release of reservoir water, especially under seismic excitation. This is a crucial task in earthquake safety evaluation and risk management of existing dams. There are many large dams under the effect of near-source zones in Turkey. This paper provides the required guidelines to address the safety concerns of large dams subjected to earthquakes. It synthesizes the simulations performed for 15 large dams located in 2 separate basins in the Northwest Anatolia Region in Turkey. Most of these dams are impacted by nearby energy sources resulting from horst and graben fault systems. For dams with hydraulic heights ranging from 35 to 89 m, the seismic hazard ratings of the dam sites and the risk ratings of the complete structures were determined, and the potential failure modes were estimated. As a result of this study, 40% of dams have been classified as “extremely high” risk, while others fall into the “high” risk category.