Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

Smartson P Nyoni Smartson P Nyoni,Thabani Nyoni Thabani Nyoni

doi:10.47494/mesb.2020.5.49

Smartson P Nyoni Smartson P Nyoni, Thabani Nyoni Thabani Nyoni

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.47494/mesb.2020.5.49

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Abstract

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030.

Highlights

The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a disease caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) which is currently a global pandemic (UNAIDS, 2008)
HIV infection continues to be a public health problem in SubSaharan Africa, where at least 25.6 million people already live with HIV, there has been a reduction in new infections of HIV of about 41% between 2000 and 2015 (Yaya et al, 2018)
The decline in the incidence of HIV infection is the effect of multiple interventions implemented to prevent HIV transmission among heterosexual and especially from mother-to-child HIV transmission (UNAIDS, 2016)

Summary

Introduction

The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a disease caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) which is currently a global pandemic (UNAIDS, 2008). HIV infection continues to be a public health problem in SubSaharan Africa, where at least 25.6 million people already live with HIV, there has been a reduction in new infections of HIV of about 41% between 2000 and 2015 (Yaya et al, 2018). The decline in the incidence of HIV infection is the effect of multiple interventions implemented to prevent HIV transmission among heterosexual and especially from mother-to-child HIV transmission (UNAIDS, 2016). The main goal of this study is to predict the number of new HIV infections in Togo over the period 2019 – 2030. This piece of work will go a long way in assessing the possibility of ending the HIV scourge in the country

Objectives

Results

Conclusion