Tornado forecasting: A review

Abstract

Present-day operational tornado forecasting can be thought of in two parts: anticipation of tornadic potential in the storm environment, and recognition of tornadic storms once they develop. The former is a forecasting issue, while the latter is associated with warnings (or so-called nowcasting). This paper focuses on the forecasting aspect of tornadoes1, by dealing primarily with the relationship between the tornadic storm and its environment. We begin with a short history of tornado forecasting and related research in Section 2, while Section 3 provides an overview of current tornado forecasting procedures within the Severe Local Storms (SELS) Unit at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC). Section 4 gives a short summary of 35 years of SELS tornado and severe thunderstorm forecast verification, while Section 5 describes our current understanding of the connection between tornadoes and their environment. We conclude in Section 6 with our thoughts about the future of tornado forecasting.