基于TOPSIS模型的海南岛土地综合承载力时空变化及障碍度诊断

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 基于TOPSIS模型的海南岛土地综合承载力时空变化及障碍度诊断 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202110283032 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 海南省自然科学基金（421MS057）；三亚学院人才引进项目（USYRC19-19）；国家社会科学基金项目（15BJY025） Spatio-temporal change and obstacle degree diagnosis of comprehensive land carrying capacity in Hainan Island based on TOPSIS model Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:土地是人类一切活动的根本，是区域经济与社会发展的重要保障。为探讨海南岛土地综合承载能力，依据2009-2019年统计数据，采用TOPSIS和GM （1.1）模型从时序角度评价并预测了2020-2030年海南岛土地综合承载力，并借助ArcGIS软件和障碍度模型对各市县2015年、2019的土地综合承载力进行动态分析及障碍度诊断。结果显示，海南岛土地综合承载力主要受经济与社会子系统的影响，2009-2019年土地综合承载力水平虽有波动但整体呈缓慢升高趋势，其中水土资源与生态环境子系统贴近度值表现为下降趋势，而经济与社会子系统贴近度值明显升高。预测结果表明2020-2030年土地综合承载力呈持续上升趋势。土地综合承载力空间动态变化差异显著，总体表现为沿海市县综合承载力水平高于内陆市县，2015年与2019年处于较高水平的是海口和三亚，处于中等水平的2015年为8个市县，2019年达到11个市县，处于较低水平的2015年为8个市县，2019年只有5个市县，并且各市县子系统承载力差异显著。障碍度分析表明，2015年和2019年子系统障碍度最高的是经济子系统，2015年障碍因子主要有经济密度（X9）、地均固定资产投资（X12）、耕地有效灌溉率（X6）及人均GDP （X8）；2019年障碍因子主要有经济密度（X9）、地均固定资产投资（X12）、人均GDP （X8）及复种指数（X14）。经济发展水平是制约各市县土地综合承载力的主要障碍因素。研究将为海南岛自由贸易港建设中生态环境与社会经济可持续发展提供科学依据。 Abstract:Land is the foundation of all human activities and important guarantee for regional economic and social development. In order to explore the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island, based on the statistical data from 2009 to 2019, the TOPSIS and GM (1.1) models were used to evaluate and predict the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island from 2020 to 2030 from time series perspective. In addition, ArcGIS software and obstacle degree model were used to conduct dynamic analysis and obstacle degree diagnosis of the comprehensive land carrying capacity of cities and counties in 2015 and 2019. The results show that the comprehensive land carrying capacity of Hainan Island is mainly affected by the economic and social subsystems. Although the level of comprehensive land carrying capacity fluctuated from 2009 to 2019, it showed a slow upward trend as a whole. The closeness value of water and soil resources and ecological environment subsystem showed a downward trend, while the closeness value of economic and social subsystem increased significantly. The prediction results show that the comprehensive land carrying capacity shows a continuous upward trend in 2020-2030. There are significant differences in the spatial dynamic changes of the comprehensive land carrying capacity. The overall performance is that the comprehensive carrying capacity of coastal cities and counties is higher than that of inland cities and counties. In 2015 and 2019, Haikou and Sanya were at a high level. Eight cities and counties were at the medium level in 2015, 11 cities and counties in 2019. And 8 cities and counties were at the low level in 2015, while only 5 cities and counties in 2019 and the sub-system carrying capacity of each city and county was significantly different. The analysis of obstacle degree shows that the economic subsystem had the highest obstacle degree in 2015 and 2019. In 2015, the obstacle factors mainly included economic density (X9), fixed asset investment per land (X12), effective irrigation rate of cultivated land (X6) and GDP per capita (X8). In 2019, the main obstacle factors were economic density (X9), fixed asset investment per land (X12), GDP per capita (X8) and multiple cropping index (X14). The level of economic development is the main factor restricting the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in cities and counties. This word is expected to provide the scientific basis for ecological conservation and economic sustainable development in the construction process of Hainan Free Trade Port. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献