Topological network and fuzzy AHP modeling framework for the suitability analysis of evacuation shelters: A case study in Japan

Abstract

Evacuation shelters play a critical role in disasters, providing a safe environment for evacuees to remain safe from threats or disasters. In this study, we analyze the suitability of evacuation shelters using a topological network and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) modeling framework with GIS applications, in which potential shelters are assessed according to their accessibility, reachability, and critical criteria within an evacuation network. The accessibility and reachability of evacuation shelters are identified using network analysis, whereas the critical criteria for evacuation shelters are deduced from the referenced requirements. The accessibility, reachability, and criteria of shelters are then weighted with fuzzy AHP analysis, and the suitability of potential shelters for use as evacuation shelters are then analyzed. An illustrative case study was conducted to illustrate the modeling framework; an evacuation network with 2797 nodes was constructed in the study area. Of the 2797 nodes, nine were identified as suitable for use as evacuation shelters. These nine included four accredited designated evacuation shelters and another five potential shelters as alternative shelters. The modeling framework in this study provides a systematic approach to identifying the characteristics of potential shelters, which is expected to be useful in decision making for evacuation planning, disaster preparedness and response, and postdisaster activities in recovery and restoration.