Abstract
Network analysis to examine infectious contact relations provides an important means to uncover the topologies of individual infectious contact networks. This study aims to investigate the spread of diseases among individuals over contact networks by exploring the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in Korea. We present several distinct features of MERS transmission by employing a comprehensive approach in network research to examine both the traced relationship matrix of infected individuals and their bipartite transmission routes among healthcare facilities visited for treatment. The results indicate that a few super-spreaders were more likely to hold certain structural advantages by linking to an exceptional number of other individuals, causing several ongoing transmission events in neighbourhoods without the aid of any intermediary. Thus, the infectious contact network exhibited small-world dynamics characterised by locally clustered contacts exposed to transmission paths via short path lengths. In addition, nosocomial infection analysis shows the pattern of a common-source outbreak followed by secondary person-to-person transmission of the disease. Based on the results, we suggest policy implications related to the redesign of prevention and control strategies against the spread of epidemics.
Highlights
Network analysis to examine infectious contact relations provides an important means to uncover the topologies of individual infectious contact networks
Network analysis tools for exploring the infectious contact network provides a key opportunity to uncover the topologies of the contact networks of individuals in the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
The epidemiological topology of the contact network of infectious individuals and healthcare facilities has not, until now, been systematically investigated in relation to MERS. This underscores the necessity of understanding the structural properties in contact networks, as infection transmission correlates to the super-spreading characteristic of epidemics and the prevalence of nosocomial infection in healthcare facilities
Summary
Network analysis to examine infectious contact relations provides an important means to uncover the topologies of individual infectious contact networks. Outbreaks of potentially devastating infections, such as SARS (2003), Ebola (2014–2015), and Zika (2015–2016), have shown that the dynamics behind the spread of disease has become more complex, limiting our ability to predict and control epidemics. In this regard, patterns of disease transmission should be used to design specific public health strategies to enhance sustainable capacity while building activities to improve government responses to infectious diseases. Most potential disease contact takes place in localized communities among individuals occupying a local geographic space around the diseased If such contacts are repeated within a given period, certain patterns of links will arise. Nodes with a high spatial proximity tend to intensify super-spreading events within clusters, making it easy for the disease to spread locally over the considered population or areas
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