Topographic Speed-Up Effects and Observed Roof Damage on Bermuda following Hurricane Fabian (2003)

Abstract

Abstract In this study the impacts of the topography of Bermuda on the damage patterns observed following the passage of Hurricane Fabian over the island on 5 September 2003 are considered. Using a linearized model of atmospheric boundary layer flow over low-slope topography that also incorporates a model for changes of surface roughness, sets of directionally dependent wind speed adjustment factors were calculated for the island of Bermuda. These factors were then used in combination with a time-stepping model for the open water wind field of Hurricane Fabian derived from the Hurricane Research Division Real-Time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) surface wind analyses to calculate the maximum 1-min mean wind speed at locations across the island for the following conditions: open water, roughness changes only, and topography and roughness changes combined. Comparison of the modeled 1-min mean wind speeds and directions with observations from a site on the southeast coast of Bermuda showed good agreement between the two sets of values. Maximum open water wind speeds across the entire island showed very little variation and were of category 2 strength on the Saffir–Simpson scale. While the effects of surface roughness changes on the modeled wind speeds showed very little correlation with the observed damage, the effect of the underlying topography led to maximum modeled wind speeds of category 4 strength being reached in highly localized areas on the island. Furthermore, the observed damage was found to be very well correlated with these regions of topographically enhanced wind speeds, with a very clear trend of increasing damage with increasing wind speeds.