Top trends of agriculture in Kazakhstan under transformation of economics

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a serious short-term (immediate) shock to markets of agricultural and forestry industries, but the long-term implications are not yet clear. Due to the lack of reliable information on long-term trends, decisions in agricultural policy are now being formulated that will have a strong impact on the future food safety and profitability of the industry in the face of uncertainty. We made an attempt to predict the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan by analyzing the dynamics of the physical volume of gross agricultural production (services) index for the period since 1991. Being one of the most important sectors of the Kazakhstan economy, agriculture provides people of Kazakhstan with the necessary products and livelihoods. Thus, our research should be considered a prerequisite for continued resilience measures to COVID-19 and can help policymakers develop effective agricultural policies. The study used the maximum plausibility method. According to our calculations, the growth trend of the agricultural production index in Kazakhstan in the next 3 years should continue to be at the level of 105.7 -106.2%. A slight decrease in exports and an increase in imports of agricultural products are forecasted. The government of Kazakhstan has taken a number of measures in the field of agriculture and the agri-food market. However, the risks to the agricultural economy in relation with the pandemic remain, and to reduce these risks, short-term, medium-term and long-term measures are necessary.