Top-Category Inflation in Ordered International Relations Outcomes

Abstract

Abstract Ordered dependent variables are widely employed in international relations (IR). These ordered dependent variables often suffer from inflated observations in their highest outcome category due to distinct processes. The application of standard ordered probit and ordered logit models to such ordinal measures will fail to capture these distinct processes, often producing biased inferences as a result. Yet IR researchers have thus far ignored the potential for top-category inflation in ordered outcome variables. We sensitize researchers to top-category inflation in ordered IR outcomes. We then intuitively extend the widely used zero-inflated ordered probit model to the top-category inflated setting, providing resources to facilitate the proper modeling of top-category inflation in ordered outcomes. Finally, we provide two applications to published IR research related to trade politics and political repression. Together, these applications illustrate the substantive and methodological potentials of our proposed tools for diagnosing and modeling top-category inflation in IR outcomes.