Too grave a risk

Abstract

When a risk has knowingly been taken to achieve some result, and the result has been achieved without the feared mishap occurring, it is normal to conclude that it was worth taking the risk. The success is attributed to good judgment. Acceptance of the risk, if it is thought of at all, tends to be seen as courageous and commendable. The 40‐year nuclear confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the Cold War of 1947–1987, entailed the risk of a nuclear war. It is widely believed in North America that the Soviet Union's breakup showed that the Cold War was won by boldly facing the enemy without blinking. That may be so, but in fact the risk was too grave to be justified by any conceivable success. It was no less than a risk of the complete destruction of our civilization, of worldwide starvation, and possibly the extermination of the human race. It was by good luck that the world survived the 40 years of Cold War, and we must not count on our good luck holding out for ever.