Too Afraid to Stay: Measuring the Relationship between Criminal Victimization in Central America and the Intent to Migrate

Abstract

Rising crime in Central America and on-going emigration have reinvigorated concerns about the relationship between criminal victimization and international migration. Analyzing data from a crime prevention intervention in this region, we examine measures related to criminal victimization to assess corresponding changes in the propensity for international migration. We find that individuals who reported a crime victimization were more likely to express their intention to migrate, but this pattern was less consistent for those who perceived their neighborhood to be unsafe. These descriptive patterns are important on their own, but this paper also advances our methodological understanding of how to address the problem of item nonresponse using a partial identification framework.