Tomorrow’s Older Drivers: Who? How Many? What Impacts?

Abstract

Most older Americans travel by car, either as drivers or as passengers, to fulfill their local travel needs. The numbers of drivers 65 years old and older will at least double over the next 30 years. The proportion of older drivers on our streets also will increase significantly, and older drivers will be driving more (taking more trips and driving more miles) than before. The total amount of travel that older drivers will undertake will be much greater in 30 years, increasing 400 to 500 percent. The proportion of all driving done by older drivers will nearly triple by 2030, even according to conservative estimates. With no changes to current crash-related fatality rates, the number of fatalities involving elderly drivers in 2030 could be three to four times greater than in 1995. If this occurs, the number of elderly traffic fatalities in 2030 will be 35 to 71 percent greater than the total number of alcohol-related traffic fatalities in 1995—a fatality number now viewed by policy makers and the public as cause for serious concern. Additional public- and private-sector responses will be necessary to provide for the safe mobility of all our citizens, including new kinds of vehicles, new designs for roadways, and new forms of transportation services. The costs of not responding to these challenges will include the increasing isolation of our oldest citizens and the loss of their potential contributions to our society—and may include avoidable traffic injuries and fatalities.