Tobacco industry data on illicit tobacco trade: a systematic review of existing assessments

Abstract

Abstract Background The tobacco industry portrays itself as key to solving Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITT) and presents its funding of research on ITT as its attempt to address the problem. In recent years, transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have been a major funding source of data on ITT which is heavily publicised, especially when a tobacco control policy is being debated. Methods Papers and reports assessing tobacco industry-funded data on ITT were obtained via systematic searching of academic and grey literature through databases and Google/website searches respectively. Characteristics of assessed industry funded data and criticisms/praise of them as detailed in the assessments were coded using a framework based on existing literature on methods for measuring ITT and for assessing the quality of estimates on tobacco tax avoidance and evasion. Results Of the 35 assessments reviewed, 31 argued that tobacco industry estimates were higher than independent estimates. Criticisms identified problems with data collection (29), analytical methods (22) and presentation of results (21), which resulted in inflated ITT estimates or data on ITT that were presented in a misleading manner. Lack of transparency from data collection right through to presentation of findings was a key issue with insufficient information to allow replication of the findings frequently cited. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that the contribution of tobacco industry-funded data on ITT thus far in aiding understanding of ITT is extremely limited, if not counterproductive, as tobacco industry funded data on ITT is unreliable and primarily serves as a platform for the industry to lobby against tobacco control policies, including tax increases. Key messages TTC-funded data routinely exaggerate/overestimate levels of illicit when compared with independent sources and fail to meet the standards of peer-reviewed publications. A potential means for providing high-quality and transparent ITT research would be a tax on tobacco companies, with funds going towards independent development of established methodologies.