To what Extent does Cognitive Bias Play a Role in the Prediction of Black Swan Events Using the Challenger's Case Study

Abstract

In this essay, different types of cognitive biases and its role in the prediction of black swan events is explored through the use of the 1986 Challenger disaster. The challengers case was mainly caused by its o-rings failure due to cold weather, which was unpredictable and unexpected by all engineers at NASA. The different types of cognitive biases that were in-volved in this event were confirmation biases, sunk cost fallacy and groupthink mentally. Along with the political and social pressures at the time, these confirmation biases play a role in the false decision-making process during the challengers launch, which in itself is a black swan event. This leads to an importance in the prevention and recognition of cognitive biases, which requires strategies.