To the question of calculating the probability of strong earthquakes in real time

Abstract

Abstract We considered the issue of identifying time intervals with a strongly increased probability of high-magnitude earthquakes. For this purpose, a statistical functional is introduced for the data of physical fields measured in seismically active regions. To test the proposed methodology, the indicators of this functional are calculated based on the statistics of the critical frequency of the ionospheric layer F2 from measurements in the Kamchatka region. The effect of discretization of the results of the corresponding calculations is found. The algorithm for justification of the conclusion about a significantincrease in the probability of a strong earthquake at a given time is formulated. We confirmed the hypothesis about the statistical structure of the fields measured in seismically active regions was confirmed. The phenomenological explanation of the results obtained is proposed.