To do or not to do: Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test calculations

Abstract

ABSTRACT A nuclear test often is as political as it is technical. The intricacies of domestic and external politics play into Pyongyang’s decisions on nuclear testing, going far beyond the technical aspects of such tests. This article explores the repercussions of the second North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in 2019 across all policy realms in North Korea and how domestic and external factors could inform and shape Kim Jong-un’s decision on a seventh nuclear test. In order to delve into what to look out for in 2024 and beyond, this article focuses on Pyongyang’s approach to the civilian economy as opposed to national defense and the reorientation of its foreign and South Korea policies as potential key indicators of Kim’s thinking on nuclear testing.