Abstract
Airframe fatigue has emerged as a primary determinant of tactical aircraft service life. To investigate the impact of various operational scenarios on airframe fatigue and aircraft stocks, we develop an econometric model of fatigue and arrest landing accumulation for US Naval aircraft. Model forecasts suggest that fatigue‐related attrition threatens to reduce inventories below the level needed to meet operational commitments before planned replacements are available. Changes to training regimes could mitigate the shortfall, but it is likely that acquisition schedules will have to be accelerated, or current service life extension programs expanded to maintain inventories in the future. 1This research was conducted while Chad Meyerhoefer was an economist at The CNA Corporation and Robert Trost was at The CNA Corporation while on Summer Break from The George Washington University (GWU). No official endorsement by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality or the Department of Health and Human Services, by The CNA Corporation, or by GWU is intended or should be inferred. Programming assistance by Kletus Lawler and Geoffrey Shaw is greatly appreciated.
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