Timing of vegetation sampling does not influence associations between visual obstruction and turkey nest survival in a montane forest.

Abstract

Evaluating relationships between ecological processes that occur concurrently is complicated by the potential for such processes to covary. Ground‐nesting birds rely on habitat characteristics that provide visual and olfactory concealment from predators; this protection often is provided by vegetation at the nest site. Recently, researchers have raised concern that measuring vegetation characteristics at nest fate (success or failure) introduces a bias, as vegetation at successful nests is measured later in the growing season (and has more time to grow) compared with failed nests. In some systems, this bias can lead to an erroneous conclusion that plant height is positively associated with nest survival. However, if the features that provide concealment are invariant during the incubation period, no bias should be expected, and the timing of measurement is less influential. We used data collected from 98 nests to evaluate whether there is evidence that such a bias exists in a study of wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) nesting in a montane forest ecosystem. We modeled nest survival as a function of visual obstruction and other covariates of interest. At unsuccessful nests, we collected visual obstruction readings at both the date of nest failure and the projected hatch date and compared survival estimates generated using both sets of vegetation data. In contrast to studies in grassland and shrubland systems, we found little evidence that the timing of vegetation sampling influenced conclusions regarding the association between visual obstruction and nest survival; model selection and estimates of nest survival were similar regardless of when vegetation data were collected. The dominant hiding cover at most of our nests was provided by evergreen shrubs; retention of leaves and slow growth of these plants likely prevent appreciable changes in visual obstruction during the incubation period. When considered in aggregate with a growing body of literature, our results suggest that the influence of timing of vegetation sampling depends on the study system. When designing future studies, investigators should carefully consider the type of structures that provide nest concealment and whether plant phenology is confounded with nest survival.