Abstract

The global spread of COVID-19 has created an urgent need for a safe and effective vaccine. However, in the United States, the politicization of the vaccine approval process, including which public figures are endorsing it, could undermine beliefs about its safety and efficacy and willingness to receive it. Using a pair of randomized survey experiments, we show that announcing approval of a COVID-19 vaccine one week before the presidential election compared to one week after considerably reduces both beliefs about its safety and efficacy and intended uptake. However, endorsement by Dr. Anthony Fauci increases confidence and uptake among all partisan subgroups. Further, an endorsement by Dr. Fauci increased uptake and confidence in safety even if a vaccine receives pre-election approval. The results here suggest that perceptions of political influence in COVID-19 vaccine approval could significantly undermine the viability of a vaccine as a strategy to end the pandemic.

Highlights

  • The true value of a vaccine in controlling an infectious disease is a combination of the vaccine’s efficacy and the willingness of individuals to vaccinate

  • Public confidence in a COVID-19 vaccine is significantly affected by the political context of vaccine approval

  • Consistent with our evidence about the importance of political context, endorsements of the vaccine by political leaders have a polarized response, increasing confidence among co-partisans while being ignored or undermining confidence among respondents affiliated with the other party

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Summary

Introduction

The true value of a vaccine in controlling an infectious disease is a combination of the vaccine’s efficacy and the willingness of individuals to vaccinate. Hesitancy to receive a COVID-19 vaccine may be driven, in part, by public concerns that political considerations are affecting when a vaccine is approved and whether it is approved before proven to be safe and effective. A majority of Americans report that they are worried that political pressure could cause a vaccine to be approved before it is safe and effective and a majority of both Republicans and Democrats express concerns that approval of the vaccine will be based more on politics than science.[4,5] Further, in the 2020 Vice Presidential Debate, Senator Kamala Harris stated that she would not receive a vaccine if it was endorsed by President Trump, but she would receive it if NIAID (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) director Dr Anthony Fauci advised that it was safe and effective.[7] Taken together, this fits into a broader pattern of the politicization of the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to it among political elites and in mass public opinion.[8,9,10]

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