Timing Matters: Shifts in the Causal Determinants of Sodomy Law Decriminalization, 1961–1998

Abstract

While research on social movement outcomes has increased significantly, less is known about how the causal determinants of movement success might vary over time. Quantitative historical methods, such as time series and event history analysis, take time-varying factors into account, but these methods also assume that the statistical relationships found are stable over time. This may not always be true. Instead, changing historical contexts may lead to changes in the causal determinants of movement outcomes, so a movement tactic such as legal mobilization is important in some years, but not in others. Using a series of “moving” event histories, this article investigates whether there have been variations over time in the causal determinants of sodomy law decriminalization, a long-term goal of the gay and lesbian movement, between 1961 and 1998. Results indicate that that the causes of decriminalization do vary across time. More specifically, the shift from legislative repeal to judicial invalidation as the primary mechanism of decriminalization, and changes in the primary advocates of reform from legal experts to movement activists significantly changed the factors contributing to sodomy law decriminalization over time.