Time-series trend analysis and farmer perceptions of rainfall and temperature in northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

Smallholder farmers are the most vulnerable community to climate change in Ethiopia since they rely heavily on the subsistence rain-fed farming system. Thus, better climate change adaptation strategies need to be identified and implemented. This study aimed at identifying the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and time series trend analysis of precipitation and temperature in northern Gondar Zuria District, Ethiopia. Data were gathered using a questionnaire from the institutional, socio-economic, and bio-physical situation of the 121 sample households. The survey data were analyzed using SPSS software version 21, XLSTAT software, and excel spreadsheets. The climate change trend analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation, which has been downloaded from free online resources such as Global Precipitation. The temperature data were collected using the Climate Centre and Climate Research Unit with 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolutions from 1980 to 2013. The climate variable data have been analyzed using a precipitation concentration index, anomaly index, coefficient of variation, simple linear regression, and Mann–Kendall test. The result revealed that for the main rain season (summer), a statistically insignificant decreasing trend was obtained. In the Belg season, there was a growing trend of precipitation. The max monthly and annual temperatures have increased significantly over time. However, the min temperature trend shows a non-significant increasing trend over the 1980–2013 periods. The recorded monthly precipitation and temperature data trend analysis were similar to the farmers’ perceptions of changes in temperature and rainfall over the past 30 years. Therefore, we recommend possible adaptation strategies designed for climate change. Particularly, countries whose economy is dependent on rain-fed agriculture should pay attention to the increasing trend of temperature and the decreasing and unreliable nature of rainfall.