Timeline, Scores and Results Prediction in Professional Men's Soccer FIFA World Cups (1930-2018)

Abstract

Professional men's soccer FIFA World Cup (FWC) takes place every four years, so it is an excellent opportunity to follow evolution in this modality. Hence, three objectives were set: a) to verify the trend of the average goals scored and score frequency; b) to analyze the association between first-half results and final results of matches; and c) to identify if half times results could predict matches outcomes. Thus, we analyzed all 900 FWC matches between years 1930 and 2018. Data were organized in goals scored and against in the first half and at the end of matches, first-half and matches outcome (win, draw or lose). Descriptive and trend analysis were carried out for the evolution of goals in FWC editions. A cross table was used to verify the final scores of matches, followed by an analysis of the association between partial results (first half) and final matches outcome, and a multinomial logistic regression to identify the match win odds ratio. It concludes that goals average in FWC has an undulatory trend; scores up to three goals were prevalent; first half win is associated to final win matches, and first half lose or draw increases odds to lose at the end of matches.