Time-frequency co-movements between bank credit supply and economic growth in an emerging market: Does the bank ownership structure matter?

Abstract

This study aims to shed some light on the causal link between bank credit supply and economic growth in Turkey for the banks with the different ownership structures between 1993Q4 and 2017Q3. Wavelet coherence test is used to obtain this objective and to answer the following questions: (i) does bank credit supply lead to economic growth in Turkey and vice versa, and (ii) does the bank ownership matters in this linkage? The findings from wavelet coherence reveal that between 1993 and 2003 in the short and medium term, economic growth leads credit supply but in the long run there is feedback causality between credit supply and economic growth for only public and private banks. However, in the long-run between 1993 and 2003 economic growth leads credit supply in the foreign banks in Turkey. Between 2004 and 2017, there is feedback causality between credit supply and economic growth. Moreover, our findings suggest that bank ownership affects the strength of the linkage between credit supply and economic growth in Turkey especially in the short and medium terms. More specially, within the three types of bank ownership, the findings imply that the strongest correlation among the variables is for the private banks while the weakest one is for foreign banks.