Abstract
Assessing the risk of fall in elderly people is a difficult challenge for clinicians. Since falls represent one of the first causes of death in such people, numerous clinical tests have been created and validated over the past 30 years to ascertain the risk of falls. More recently, the developments of low-cost motion capture sensors have facilitated observations of gait differences between fallers and nonfallers. The aim of this study is twofold. First, to design a method combining clinical tests and motion capture sensors in order to optimize the prediction of the risk of fall. Second to assess the ability of artificial intelligence to predict risk of fall from sensor raw data only. Seventy-three nursing home residents over the age of 65 underwent the Timed Up and Go (TUG) and six-minute walking tests equipped with a home-designed wearable Inertial Measurement Unit during two sets of measurements at a six-month interval. Observed falls during that interval enabled us to divide residents into two categories: fallers and nonfallers. We show that the TUG test results coupled to gait variability indicators, measured during a six-minute walking test, improve (from 68% to 76%) the accuracy of risk of fall’s prediction at six months. In addition, we show that an artificial intelligence algorithm trained on the sensor raw data of 57 participants reveals an accuracy of 75% on the remaining 16 participants.
Highlights
Falls are an inevitable part of aging and their prediction and prevention are of paramount importance to health care
Our study aimed at designing tests assessing the risk of fall in nursing home patients
We first confirm that the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test alone may predict falls despite its simplicity
Summary
Falls are an inevitable part of aging and their prediction and prevention are of paramount importance to health care. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), falls are the second cause of accidental death and approximately 646,000 people die every year following falls, people over the age of 65. As the population of elderly people in the EU is expected to grow by 60% by 2050, the number of fall-related deaths is expected to increase to almost 60,000/y by 2050, unless additional measures are taken to predict and prevent falls. Falls result in significant physical and psychosocial costs that have to be incurred by patients and social security. The social security cost for treating fall-related injuries in the EU is estimated to be €25 billion each year [2]
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