Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies

Abstract

This study aims to investigate real effective exchange rates and real commodity prices volatility transmission among Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. According to the results, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between precious metals and the real exchange rate. However, this relationship varies over time. Especially in times of crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the transfer of volatility disappears. Precious metals have a safe haven feature against the exchange rate. On the other hand, the reverse is not true. During the Covid period, the bilateral risk transfer between crude oil and exchange rate disappears. The crude oil and exchange rate have safe haven feature during the Covid-19 period. Only for Indonesia, there is risk transfer from oil to exchange rates.