TIME-VARYING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INTERNATIONAL TOURISM IN TURKEY

Abstract

In this paper we examine the causal relations between international tourism demand and total exports and its sub-components (intermediate goods and capital goods) and total imports (intermediate goods and capital goods) in Turkey by using Hacker and Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto and Time-Varying Causality tests. The results of the study indicate the causal relations between international tourism demand and exports and imports. The results also indicate that these causal relations between international tourism demand and international trade are not stable. In other words, they have a time-varying nature. Moreover, international tourism demand’s contribution to imports are greater than that of exports. Finally, the international tourism demand is more often affected by components of exports and imports and the signs of are generally positive. Thus, policy makers, sector representatives and market professionals related to both international trade and tourism should take into account of this time-varying nature of causal relations between these variables before implementing policies aiming to promote both.