Time-varying influence of interest rates on stock returns: evidence from China

Abstract

Whether a stock market should matter or not when monetary policy is concerned seems to be a controversial issue. The purpose of this study is to indicate whether the central bank should use monetary policy to help the stock market or not. Based on macroeconomic data such as interest rate and the stock market, we adopt a novel Bayesian time-varying regression model and determine that the impact of interest rate changes on stock returns varies over time in China, after controlling various macroeconomic factors. Although on average interest rates negatively impact stock price returns, they tend to have an abnormal positive effect at market high points, following a time-varying dynamic pattern. Surprisingly, during periods of overheated economic development, an increase in interest rates cannot suppress the rise in stock prices. Therefore, policymakers need to pay attention when accelerating the marketisation of interest rates and initiating the preventive role of timely and strategic adjustment of interest rates.