Time Varying Impact of Oil Prices on Stock Returns: Evidence from Developing Markets

Abstract

In this study, we provide new evidence on the relationship between crude oil, exchange rate and stock returns before and after the official announcement of COVID-19 as a pandemic by WHO. Data for the present study consists of the major stock indices of ten emerging markets (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan and Thailand), their exchange rates, And prices of Brent crude oil. We employ panel vector autoregression and provide evidence based on panel granger causality, impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition. Panel granger causality reveals that after the declaration of COVID-19 as pandemic, interdependence between oil price changes and stock returns has increased. We find positive (negative) impact of oil market (exchange rate) shocks on stock returns. Analysis of impulse response suggests that during pandemic shocks to crude oil, exchange rate and stock market have larger and longer own and cross-market impact. Thus, there is a need for sharing timely and adequate information to minimize uncertainties in financial and commodity markets. This would benefit investors by lessening the transmission of shocks during the times of crisis.