Abstract
Analysis of the factors influencing the price of carbon emissions trading in China and its time-varying characteristics is essential for the smooth operation of the carbon trading system. We analyse the time-varying effects of public concern, degree of carbon regulation, crude oil price, international carbon price and interest rate level on China’s carbon price through SV-TVP-VAR model. Among them, the quantification of public concern and the degree of carbon emission regulation is based on microblog text and government decisions. The results show that all the factors influencing carbon price are significantly time-varying, with the shocks of each factor on carbon price rising before 2019 and turning significantly thereafter. The short-term shock effect of each factor is more significant compared to the medium- and long-term, and the effect almost disappears at a lag of six months. Thanks to public environmental awareness, low-carbon awareness and the progress of carbon market management mechanisms, public concern has had the most significant impact on carbon price since 2019. With the promulgation of relevant management measures for the carbon market, relevant regulations on carbon emission accounting, financing constraints, and carbon emission quota allocation for emission-controlled enterprises have become increasingly mature, and carbon price signals are more sensitive to market information. The above findings provide substantial empirical evidence for all stakeholders in the market, who need to recognize that the impact of non-structural factors on the price of carbon varies over time. Government intervention also serves as a key aspect of carbon emission control and requires the introduction of relevant constraints and incentives. In particular, emission-controlling firms need to focus on the policy direction of the carbon market, and focus on the impact of Internet public opinion on business production while reducing carbon allowance demand and energy dependence.
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