Time-variant reliability prediction of bridge system based on BDGCM and SHM data

Abstract

Structural health monitoring systems produce a large number of monitored data in the long-term service periods. To properly predict the dynamic reliability of bridge system based on these structural health monitoring data, the paper is to propose (a) Bayesian Dynamic Gaussian Copula Model obtained with Bayesian dynamic linear models and Gaussian Copula function for modeling the time-dependent nonlinear correlation coefficients between monitored variables; (b) time-variant reliability prediction approach of bridge system based on Bayesian Dynamic Gaussian Copula Model; and (c) an actual bridge is provided to illustrate the feasibility and application of the proposed models and methods.