Abstract
Based on the characteristics of loading condition of ship structure in service and the degeneration of the strength under fatigue and corrosion, the random time-variant model of ship hull section modulus was set up using the theory of random process. Then the time-variant reliability was analyzed with the method of up-crossing analysis and parallel system reliability. This method could not only present successive decrease of reliability of the ship structure under fatigue and corrosion, but also avoid the complicated numerical integration. It could be seen that this method was easy to achieve. Furthermore, the time-variant reliability was compared with the annual instantaneous reliability through an example, which indicated that this method was more precise, and could provide some references to the decision-making of the reliability, maintenance and safeguard.
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