Time-Updated Changes in Estimated GFR and Proteinuria and Major Adverse Cardiac Events: Findings from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study

Abstract

Evaluating repeated measures of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary protein-creatinine ratio (UPCR) over time may enhance our ability to understand the association between changes in kidney parameters and cardiovascular disease risk. Prospective cohort study. Annual visit data from 2,438 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC). Average and slope of eGFR and UPCR in time-updated, 1-year exposure windows. Incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, death, and a composite of incident heart failure, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events, and death. A landmark analysis, a dynamic approach to survival modeling that leverages longitudinal, iterative profiles of laboratory and clinical information to assess the time-updated 3-year risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Adjusting for baseline and time-updated covariates, every standard deviation lower mean eGFR (19mL/min/1.73m2) and declining slope of eGFR (8mL/min/1.73m2 per year) were independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (hazard ratios [HRs] of 1.82 [95% CI, 1.39-2.44] and 1.28 [95% CI, 1.12-1.45], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.32 [95% CI, 1.11-1.54] and 1.11 [95% CI, 1.03-1.20], respectively). Every standard deviation higher mean UPCR (136mg/g) and increasing UPCR (240mg/g per year) were also independently associated with higher risks of heart failure (HRs of 1.58 [95% CI, 1.28-1.97] and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.10-1.29], respectively) and the composite outcome (HRs of 1.33 [95% CI, 1.17-1.50] and 1.12 [95% CI, 1.06-1.18], respectively). Limited generalizability of annual eGFR and UPCR assessments; several biomarkers for cardiovascular disease risk were not available annually. Using the landmark approach to account for time-updated patterns of kidney function, average and slope of eGFR and proteinuria were independently associated with 3-year cardiovascular risk. Short-term changes in kidney function provide information about cardiovascular risk incremental to level of kidney function, representing possible opportunities for more effective management of patients with chronic kidney disease.