TIME TRENDS OF RECTAL CANCER INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY: A POPULATION-BASED STUDY FROM THE ARKHANGELSK REGIONAL CANCER REGISTRY

Abstract

Aim. Assessment of the rectal cancer (RC) incidence and mortality in the Arkhangelsk region (AR), North-Western Russia according to population-based data of the Arkhangelsk Regional Cancer Registry (ARCR) over the period 2000-2015. Methods. Data on all cases of RC in the AR were extracted from the database of the ARCR. 3 721 cases of the RC were selected. For mortality estimation 2 187 cases of RC were taken over the study period. Age-standardized (ASR) RC rates were calculated. Population number and its age distribution were taken from the Regional Bureau of Statistics, Arkhangelskstat. Time trends were analyzed using segmented regression. Results. Incidence of RC in AR increased from 11.5 to 14.2 per 100 000; 18.6 vs 11.8 among men and women in 2015, respectively. The female RC incidence increased significantly by 4.6 % per year in 2011-2015. The incidence of both urban and rural populations was 11.8 and 18.7 per 100 000 in 2015, respectively. Mortality estimates ranged from 10.0 to 12.2 per 100 000 in 2005-2015, respectively. Mortality among males was higher than in females - 19.9 vs 8.4 per 100 000 in 2015, respectively. The trend of male mortality significantly increased by 6.5 % per year in 2011-2015, while in females the mortality has been decreasing by 0.7% per year from 2009 to 2015. Conclusion. Epidemiological model for RC in both AR and Russia shows progressively increasing incidence and mortality rates and substantially differs from that in developed countries. A higher incidence rates among males and rural population require detailed analysis.