Time Trends in the Incidence of Spinal Pain in China, 1990 to 2019 and Its Prediction to 2030: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Abstract

With increasing life expectancy in China, the associated burden of low back and neck pain (spinal pain) on the healthcare system increases, posing a substantial public health challenge. This study aimed to investigate trends in spinal pain incidence across China from 1990 to 2019 and to predict incidence trends between 2020 and 2030. Data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) between 1990 and 2019 were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period, and cohort on spinal pain were estimated by an age-period-cohort model. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast incidence trends from 2020 to 2030. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of low back pain (LBP) significantly decreased in both male and female subjects, while the ASIR of neck pain (NP) slightly increased regardless of sex. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rates of LBP decreased in all age groups, and incidence rates of NP increased after 45years old among men and women. The age effects showed that the relative risks (RR) of LBP incidence increased with age, and the group aged 40-49years had the highest RR for NP incidence, regardless of sex. Period effects showed that the risk of NP continuously increased with increasing time periods, but not in LBP. The cohort effect showed a continuously decreasing trend in later birth cohorts. The prediction results of the ARIMA model show that the ASIR of NP in both male and female subjects in China shows an increasing trend in the next 10years, and the ASIR of LBP increased in male but decreased in female subjects. Spinal pain has remained a major public health burden over the past 30years in China and will likely increase further with population aging. Therefore, spinal pain should be a priority for future research on prevention and therapy, and is especially critical as the aging population increases in China.