Abstract
A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). We used a validated database including the 1606 cases of MM diagnosed in Sardinia in 1974–2003 to explore its time trend, and we applied Bayesian methods to plot MM probability by administrative unit on the regional map. Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 10–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. MM incidence increased by 3.3%/year in 1974–2003, in both males and females, particularly among the elderly and in the high incidence areas. Areas at risk tended to cluster in the north-eastern part of the region. A higher proportion of elderly in the resident population, but not socioeconomic factors, nor livestock farming, was associated with higher incidence rates. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk.
Highlights
A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM)
Based on the standard World population, the incidence rate over these three decades was 2.17 × 1 0–5 for the total population, 2.29 among males, and 2.06 among females, with a male/female ratio of 0.95
Our results describe for the first time increasing time trends of multiple myeloma over several decades among the population of the island of Sardinia
Summary
A few reports have described increasing trends and spatial distribution of multiple myeloma (MM). Over the 30 years of observation, the MM standardized incidence rate (standard world population, all ages) was 2.17 × 1 0–5 (95% CI 2.01–2.34), 2.29 (95% CI 2.06–2.52) among men, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.83–2.28) among women. The steep upward time trend and the spatial clustering of MM suggest interactions between genetic and environmental determinants that might be more efficiently investigated in the areas at risk. The study of spatial distribution of MM incidence over the island might provide clues for future more in-depth studies on genetic susceptibility and gene-environment interactions in MM aetiology. The standardized incidence (world population, all ages) reported in the CI5-11 is 2.9 among males and 2.8 × 1 0–5 among females in northern Sardinia, and 4.0 among males and 2.1 among females in its central-eastern p art[2]
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