Time to death explains the chronological decline of voter turnout among the older population

Abstract

Age is possibly the strongest known individual-level socio-demographic determinant of participation in elections. Despite its substantial influence in shaping electoral outcomes, evidence-based understanding of the steep decline in turnout at older ages is scarce. We suggest that time-related proximity to death and the associated decline in cognitive and physical functioning may explain this relationship. With full population data on the participation of the 65+ year-old electorate in the 1999 parliamentary elections in Finland linked to a more than 21-year mortality follow-up, we demonstrate that the remaining lifetime is a more powerful predictor of voting than age, often by an order of magnitude. These results offer a novel theoretical principle into understanding the fundamental age-related decline in electoral participation at older ages: It is not the time from the cradle, but the time to the grave, that counts more.