Time to death and its predictors among Ethiopian under-five children: cluster-level shared frailty survival analysis using the 2019 Ethiopian mini demographic health survey

Abstract

Introduction: Reducing under-five mortality to less than 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 is one of the Sustainable Development Goals introduced in 2016. However, several countries are still falling short of their targets. In Ethiopia, one out of every 19 children dies before reaching the age of five. Thus, this study aims to identify the time to death and its predictors among under-five children in Ethiopia. Methods: The data were retrieved from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey data set. Descriptive statistics and survival curves were applied. Shared frailty survival analysis was employed to determine the predictors of under-five mortality. Statistical significance was declared at p-value <0.05. Result: The under-five mortality rate was found to be 59 deaths per 1000 live births with an estimated mean survival time of 57.6 months (95%CI: 57.38, 57.85). A child born into a family of seven or more had an 85% lowered risk of dying (AHR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.44). The risk of mortality among children born in the birth order of five or above was 3 times higher (AHR = 3.00, 95%CI: 1.70, 5.21) compared to those born in the birth order of one to four. The estimated risk of death among under-five children born less than 24 months interval was 2.68 times higher (AHR=2.68, 95%CI: 1.71, 4.21). Never breastfed was also a significant predictor of under-five child death (AHR = 2.76, 95%CI: 1.46, 5.23). Conclusion: Birth order, family size, preceding birth interval, and never breastfed history were significant predictors of under-five child mortality. Health policies should focus on keeping the spirit of a continuum of care to improve the health of the child and the health of the family as a whole. Health care providers should intervene in the community to maximize optimal infant and young child feeding practices.